Welcome to the 2014 return of the #CATweetbag, or the Cat Wee Bag as it has become known. Today we’re talking Colts training camp, which I was fortunate enough to attend all this week while I’ve visited Indianapolis, Anderson and the surrounding area. By the way, thank you to all who I was able to […]
I wrote about this for Bleacher Report this morning, but I wanted to call attention to it here as well: The Colts continue to be ravaged by injuries, and it’s a historically significant phenomenon. According to Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost, the Colts have been in the bottom five of games lost due to injury […]
Welcome to the first episode of Colts Authority Radio: 2014 Edition! Tonight, Greg Cowan and Kyle Rodriguez power-summarize the entire 2014 offseason, and we look ahead to the 2014 Indianapolis Colts. You can listen to the show live here: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/coltsauthorityradio/2014/07/31/colts-authoritys-2014-season-preview-show You can follow Greg and Kyle on Twitter at
In the mad rush between the Annual release and my trip to Indianapolis for training camp this week, I’ve yet to lay out all of the implications from Vick Ballard’s season-ending Achilles tear. On one hand, Ballard is not an especially talented back, and losing him is not as big of a blow as losing […]
So, the first real day of Colts training camp was yesterday, and the Colts took the practice field. There are all kinds of storylines at training camp, but one of the biggest is the wide receiving corp. Reggie Wayne’s return, Hakeem Nicks’ arrival, rookie Donte Moncrief’ coming in, etc. But the most exciting of the […]
Ladies and gentlemen, we proudly present the 2014 Colts Authority Annual Season Preview! *applause* For the second-consecutive season, we have spent months working on our digital edition of the magazine-style season preview that was well-received by all last August. The preview includes articles written from all of your favorite Colts Authority authors, including Marcus Dugan, Greg […]
During the 2014 offseason, Colts Authority is making a concentrated effort to have a complex understanding of as many of the players on the roster as possible. It’s all a part of the Colts Authority Charting Project, an intentional effort to chart as many statistical and strategical details about the team as we can. In that […]
Just two quarterbacks finished in the top five in Win Probability Added (WPA) in both 2012 and 2013: Tom Brady and Andrew Luck.
I’ve long been a fan of the WPA metric, which calculates how much each play changes the likelihood of a particular team winning. From Brian Burke, the founder of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced Football Stats):
“The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time–in other words a 0.36 WP.
“On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.
“If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.”
Tackles are a befuddling statistic. Not because it’s confusing, or is a bad thing to track in and of itself, but because it’s so easy to misuse. Having a lot of tackles isn’t, on it’s own, a necessarily telling fact. Having a lot of tackles doesn’t help the team unless the tackles prevent a successful […]
As you may have heard by now, the worldwide leader recently came out with its 2014 NFL Future Power Rankings, which is an annual ranking of how each NFL team ranks in it’s projection over the next three seasons. The methodology was simple: Have the panel of NFL experts (John Clayton, Mel Kiper, Louis Riddick […]
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