Win Probability

Our own Nate Dunlevy uses the Colts as an example today as he continues to explain some advanced football statistics:

Win Probability and its player-driven cousin Win Probability Added (WPA) are stats advanced by Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats. Win Probability calculates the likelihood that a team will win the game before each and every play. WPA adds up the impact that an individual player has on those odds.

The Colts’ most embarrassing loss of 2011 illustrates that nicely.

Against the Chiefs in Week 5, Indy jumped off to a lead. After sacking Matt Cassel to end the first quarter, the Colts had a seven-point advantage and the ball. At this point, they were 75 percent favorites to win.

Curtis Painter pushed the lead 17 points with a 67-yard strike to Pierre Garcon with 11:23 to play in the half. Teams with 17 point leads at home win 93 percent of the time.

I think we all remember where it sent from there. What’s interesting about this game and example Nate provides is how WPA worked out until about 8 minutes to go. Go check it out…

 

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