What predicts championships?

There’s lots of maxims and myths about the path to a championship.  They’re largely wrong and include things like “Defense wins championships!” and “Run the ball and stop the run to win!”

Prior to this weekend’s games Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts told listeners the best statistic to follow is passer rating differential is at the top of the heap.  It simply compares the opponents’ passer rating to the offensive passer rating.  Without further delay I’d like to point you back to some facts from Mr. Bryne:

Put most simply, wins and losses move in lock step with Passer Rating Differential (PRD), a Cold, Hard Football Facts “Quality Stat” because it has a direct correlation to success. In this case, the correlation is shocking even to the folks who created the stat.

How good is the stat? Consider that 40 of 71 NFL champs since 1940 (56 percent) finished No. 1 or No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential.

Further, if you do the math you’ll find that about 90% of all champions finished in the top 5 in passer rating differential.  This is, and has been, a passing league my friends.  

Todd Smith

About Todd Smith

Todd Smith is a part-time sportswriter who spends too much time arguing on Twitter. What he really loves is eating poorly and watching football. He got his first Colts t-shirt in 1984 shortly after the Mayflower trucks arrived and has never given up on his hometown team. He also still holds to the belief that Kordell Stewart stepped out of the end zone and thus cheated the Colts.

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