While driving today I had the idea that I’d look for good advice to give GMs. No, they aren’t asking for my relatively unimportant advice but I’ll give it anyway. It’s fun to boot.
Today I bring you a simple lesson: don’t draft running backs in the first round. Yes, it’s a generalization but it’s a good one. First, running backs are horribly overrated. Second, they don’t have a good life expectancy compared to other positions. Third, you need two today to be effective anyway. And finally, the stats from the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective say they’re not worth the dough:
The break in salaries at the end of the first round appears to create a clear buying opportunity at the beginning of the second round. Overall, second and third round picks seem to be the most financially beneficial. After that, the first and fourth rounds provide approximately equal financial benefits. The fifth through seventh rounds provide increasingly less value as we approach the last pick. Since teams are operating under a hard cap and need to maximize the value they get out of each dollar, it would be prudent to look at which picks maximize production per dollar when acquiring running backs.
Sure, there are examples of sure-fire home runs that defy this advice. There are far many examples that prove this to be sage advice. Don’t draft running backs in the first round.