FO Attempts to predict QB success

Bill Parcells was famous for having a quantitative method for evaluating quarterbacks. His method hasn’t held up over time but it lead to a formula based upon David Lewin’s work that is considerably more accurate. Football Outsiders has used a derivative formula they call the “Lewin Career Forecast.” This year it predicts that Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are special talents:

Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR

Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR

Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.

Let’s first give you the weaknesses of this model:

  1. Does not consider junior college experience
  2. May vastly overstate a QBs value if said QB started many years in a BCS conference
  3. Doesn’t account for the age, physical condition or health risks of a QB
  4. Cannot be used in place of film; must be used to corroborate film observation

Knowing those things, the model predicts that RG3 and Andrew Luck will likely be very successful as professional QBs. 

Todd Smith

About Todd Smith

Todd Smith is a part-time sportswriter who spends too much time arguing on Twitter. What he really loves is eating poorly and watching football. He got his first Colts t-shirt in 1984 shortly after the Mayflower trucks arrived and has never given up on his hometown team. He also still holds to the belief that Kordell Stewart stepped out of the end zone and thus cheated the Colts.

Quantcast