Bill Parcells was famous for having a quantitative method for evaluating quarterbacks. His method hasn’t held up over time but it lead to a formula based upon David Lewin’s work that is considerably more accurate. Football Outsiders has used a derivative formula they call the “Lewin Career Forecast.” This year it predicts that Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck are special talents:
Robert Griffin, Baylor: 2,530 DYAR
Important stats: 40 games started, 67.0% completion rate, senior passer rating rose 45.3 points, 161 carries for 644 yards.
Andrew Luck, Stanford: 1,749 DYAR
Important stats: 37 games started, 66.4% completion rate, senior passer rating dropped -0.5 points, 47 carries for 150 yards.
Let’s first give you the weaknesses of this model:
- Does not consider junior college experience
- May vastly overstate a QBs value if said QB started many years in a BCS conference
- Doesn’t account for the age, physical condition or health risks of a QB
- Cannot be used in place of film; must be used to corroborate film observation
Knowing those things, the model predicts that RG3 and Andrew Luck will likely be very successful as professional QBs.