Colts Vice Chairman Polian Says Good Draft Hit Rates are Lower than Many Expect

Our friend Paul Kuharsky of ESPN’s AFC South Blog, discussed what a good draft batting average is between Colts Vice Chairman Bill Polian and Titans General Manager Mike Reinfeldt. Below are a couple of interesting quotes from Polian but the full story the read at

I think you have to divide it into top 12 and bottom 20. If you’re in the top 12, it ought to be in the .640 range. That’s about 4.5 guys on average per year out of the seven. You measure that at the end of three years and what you are measuring is whether or not those guys become winning players, guys that contribute to wins. Bottom 20 is .571, that’s four out of seven… You either make it or you don’t. We’ve been above the .570 mark when you count collegiate free agents like Melvin Bullitt who come in and play, and they count. So we’ve been above the .570 mark. This past year we could get close to the .640 mark drafting 31st but it’s early.

Do you judge yourself harshly? The answer is yes. The guy either is a winning player or he’s not.

See a chart illustrating Polian’s break down between top 12 picks and bottom 20 picks at the link to the full story above. With all of the discussion in recent years regarding the Colts draft success in the early rounds and whether a draft is a hit or a miss, the discussions and different perspectives from two men who head their teams draft day operations are rather insightful.