So, the first real day of Colts training camp was yesterday, and the Colts took the practice field. There are all kinds of storylines at training camp, but one of the biggest is the wide receiving corp. Reggie Wayne’s return, Hakeem Nicks’ arrival, rookie Donte Moncrief’ coming in, etc. But the most exciting of the […]
Ladies and gentlemen, we proudly present the 2014 Colts Authority Annual Season Preview! *applause* For the second-consecutive season, we have spent months working on our digital edition of the magazine-style season preview that was well-received by all last August. The preview includes articles written from all of your favorite Colts Authority authors, including Marcus Dugan, Greg […]
Just two quarterbacks finished in the top five in Win Probability Added (WPA) in both 2012 and 2013: Tom Brady and Andrew Luck.
I’ve long been a fan of the WPA metric, which calculates how much each play changes the likelihood of a particular team winning. From Brian Burke, the founder of Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced Football Stats):
“The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time–in other words a 0.36 WP.
“On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.
“If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.”
Tackles are a befuddling statistic. Not because it’s confusing, or is a bad thing to track in and of itself, but because it’s so easy to misuse. Having a lot of tackles isn’t, on it’s own, a necessarily telling fact. Having a lot of tackles doesn’t help the team unless the tackles prevent a successful […]
As you may have heard by now, the worldwide leader recently came out with its 2014 NFL Future Power Rankings, which is an annual ranking of how each NFL team ranks in it’s projection over the next three seasons. The methodology was simple: Have the panel of NFL experts (John Clayton, Mel Kiper, Louis Riddick […]
From 1999 to 2006, Marvin Harrison had at least 80 catches, 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns in each season.
EIGHT STRAIGHT SEASONS.
Jerry Rice is the only other receiver in history with more than five such seasons, he also has eight, but over a span of 10 years. Harrison’s eight-year run is the most consistent stretch of elite production we’ve ever seen. Harrison also owns the most dominant four-year stretch of any wide receiver, having four straight seasons of 100 catches, 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has more such seasons than any other receiver in history.
In the days following LaVon Brazill’s suspension announcement, the oh-so-predictable outbreak of outrage has come. Brazill, as is well known by now, was suspended for a year following yet another violation of the NFL’s substance-abuse policy. The third-year receiver out of Ohio University was also suspended last year for four games for marijuana use. While […]
Aided by playing in four more games, Coby Fleener doubled each of his statistics from his rookie season during his second year in the NFL. Fleener went from 26 catches to 52, 281 yards to 608 and two touchdowns to four.
Fleener also went from a +.04 Pro Football Focus grade during his rookie season to a +2.1 in 2013, and went from three drops in 29 attempts to one drop in 53 chances.
For the past 10 months, we’ve talked about the Colts and Pep Hamilton being “run-first.” Well, let me rephrase that. We’ve mocked the Colts and Pep Hamilton for being run-first. We’ve complained about every I-formation, loathed the presence of Stanley Havili and watched in despair as Trent Richardson made himself the laughing stock of fantasy […]
Editor’s note: Thanks to CA reader and friend of the site Ben Rathe for sending me this well-put-together piece on T.Y. Hilton’s usage last season. As always, we welcome any commentary or criticism that is well thought-out in order to facilitate discussion. You can follow Ben on Twitter
A big thanks to friend of the site Jeremy Stevenson for sending us this reflection. You can follow Jeremy, otherwise known as
During the 2014 offseason, Colts Authority is making a concentrated effort to have a complex understanding of as many of the players on the roster as possible. It’s all a part of the Colts Authority Charting Project, an intentional effort to chart as many statistical and strategical details about the team as we can. In that […]
Stat of the day: In their seven-season history, Pro Football Focus has never assigned a higher grade to a rookie tight end than the +19.1 grade Dwayne Allen received in 2012. Allen was just the 11th tight end in league history, and the first Colt, to have a rookie season of at least 45 catches, 500 yards and three touchdowns.
*Stat of the day will be a new feature throughout the summer where, on days where new articles are not yet ready for publication, we still bring you an interesting, unique stat about the Indianapolis Colts
Last offseason, I put together some numbers illustrating how good T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen were during their rookie seasons. Basically, the two came down as two of the top fifteen rookies at their position since 2000, which was fantastic value for the third round in the draft. Of course, Allen’s season-ending hip injury kept […]
During the 2014 offseason, Colts Authority is making a concentrated effort to have a complex understanding of as many of the players on the roster as possible. It’s all a part of the Colts Authority Charting Project, an intentional effort to chart as many statistical and strategical details about the team as we can. In […]