For the second installment of this year’s What to Expect, we look at Indy’s third-round selection of wide receiver Donte Moncrief.
(Rather than belabor the point of this series, please just refer back to the first post of 2014, and remember that these are not predictions, but rather baselines by which we can judge performance).
Much to my delight, it’s easy to find a recent third-round wideout in Indianapolis, and the baseline for Moncrief won’t be appreciably different than the one T.Y. Hilton obliterated ever-so recently. Notice, if you will, in that post that DeVier Posey is much closer to typical than Hilton has been.
Since that piece was released, the three other third-round wide have combined for 10 seasons totaling 155 catches, 1,778 yards and 17 touchdowns. That’s an average of 15 catches, 177 yards and two scores. And that includes several second-years from some of those guys.
Hilton has 132, 1,944, and 13 total touchdowns by himself over two seasons.The moral of this story, Colts fans, is don’t expect lighting to strike twice.
Given the crowded nature of the Indy receiving corp, Moncrief would do well to earn enough playing time to hit the 25/350/2 baseline established for Hilton.
Now, Indy won’t have the services of Reggie Wayne forever, and there are still serious questions as to how effective he can be in 2014. So Moncrief will have an opening if not now, then soon. Still, expectations for him should be kept to a modest level. Consider that LaVon Brazill has barely hit that baseline over two seasons.
Moncrief wasn’t a pick for 2014, so if he doesn’t see the playing necessary to hit the baseline, it’s not going to be a problem. If he can match those modest totals, the Colts will be able to feel better about the future of a receiving corp that could be as barren in 2015 as it is crowded in 2014.