Jul 24, 2014; Anderson, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne (87) stretches out during training camp at Anderson University. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Injury Anomalies: Adjusted Games Lost from 2009-2013

I wrote about this for Bleacher Report this morning, but I wanted to call attention to it here as well: The Colts continue to be ravaged by injuries, and it’s a historically significant phenomenon.

According to Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost, the Colts have been in the bottom five of games lost due to injury in each of the last five years, and have lost nearly 50 games more than the next team (NYG) in that period. If things continue to progress, with the Colts losing Donald Thomas and Vick Ballard for the season already, and LaRon Landry and Vontae Davis not practicing yet, 2014 could be much more of the same.

For your enjoyment/resourcefulness, here is a sortable chart of AGL for every NFL team over the last five years, including the two, three, four and five-year splits.

Adjusted Games Lost 2009-2013

Team
2013 AGL
2012 AGL
2011 AGL
2010 AGL
2009 AGL
5-yr Totals
4-yr Totals
3-yr Totals
2-yr Totals
Average70.2464.4559.9650.8653.89299.41245.52194.65134.69
BUF45.279.77141.797.7335.3237.6195.9124.9
IND110.392.584.790.590.4468.4378287.5202.8
CLE44.483.471.894.781.2375.5294.3199.6127.8
NO88.635.124.64580.4273.7193.3148.3123.7
DET64.581.5285176.7301.7225174146
SEA61.832.978.661.575.6310.4234.8173.394.7
WAS43.989.467.569.975.5346.2270.7200.8133.3
STL49.136.211056.975327.2252.2195.385.3
CIN43.463.351.862.470.9291.8220.9158.5106.7
PHI33.673.321.970.169.4268.3198.9128.8106.9
CAR72.276.1109.27569401.5332.5257.5148.3
HOU70.340.850.155.257.6274216.4161.2111.1
SD94.449.472.639.656.4312.4256216.4143.8
NYG144.682.778.358.156.2419.9363.7305.6227.3
ATL90.952.948.616.154262.5208.5192.4143.8
PIT83.583.360.549.953.4330.6277.2227.3166.8
OAK77.966.77830.551.7304.8253.1222.6144.6
TB86.656.951.460.851.6307.3255.7194.9143.5
CHI62.631.154.512.351.1211.6160.5148.293.7
JAC7799.973.437.648.2336.1287.9250.3176.9
MIA62.137.731.75148.1230.6182.5131.599.8
NE99.974.797.572.546.8391.4344.6272.1174.6
SF84.216.238.427.443.9210.1166.2138.8100.4
NYJ56.678.730.441.938.4246207.6165.7135.3
GB104.5108.158.786.337394.6357.6271.3212.6
BAL49.857.418.850.928.8205.7176.9126107.2
KC27.679.265.51028.4210.7182.3172.3106.8
ARI64.972.386.838.324.4286.7262.3224137.2
MIN55.430.948.855.423.2213.7190.5135.186.3
DAL67.986.562.531.822.5271.2248.7216.9154.4
TEN44.664.537.731.622.5200.9178.4146.8109.1
DEN85.449.255.451.718.6260.3241.7190134.6

For more on AGL, here is Football Outsiders’ explanation:

To compile injury data, we use a metric called Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2008. AGL uses the injury report, the league’s various long-term injury lists, and historical rates of participation to measure the level of impact injuries have on a team’s starters in a given season. A player listed as Probable, for example, produces a fraction of the AGL that a player listed as Out does, because the historical rate of participation for starters with such injury designations is dramatically different.

The result is a figure representing an estimate of how many “games” each team’s starters missed in a given season. AGL is more accurate than simply counting “starter games lost” because, by counting appearances on the injury report, it also accounts for fact that playing hurt means playing at less than full strength.

For more on the injury situation, check out my larger piece on Bleacher Report today, as well as the ripple effects from the Vick Ballard injury earlier this week.

Kyle J. Rodriguez

About Kyle J. Rodriguez

A film and numbers guru, Kyle writes about the NFL and the Indianapolis Colts for Bleacher Report, Draft Mecca and The Football Educator, and is a co-founder and associate editor of Colts Authority. Kyle also is a high school sports reporter for the MLive Media Group in Michigan, covering high school sports across the state.

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