What Can the Colts Expect from the 2013 Draft?

Draft season typically gets fans in a tizzy about potential stars and an uninterrupted string of Pro Bowls from that second-round defensive tackle.

Of course, the reality of the draft is that outside of the top 15 picks, the most teams can hope for is a solid NFL starter.

The Colts six selections in this year's draft. Here's a look at what recent history says they are likely to land with them.

Round One, Pick 24

First round picks get the most attention, but as you slide toward the back of the round, the talent is already thin.

Here are the last five players selected at pick 24:

David DeCastro, Guard

Cameron Jordan, DE

Dez Bryant, WR

Peria Jerry, DT

Chris Johnson, RB

The historic career AV for this draft slot is 34. Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder had an AV of 34.

The players on this list for Indy are a mixed bag. Obviously, Chris Johnson has had amazing seasons, but is now one of the most overrated players in the game. Dez Bryant also possesses elite skills. Jerry and DeCastro have battled injuries, but mostly start, and Jordan is a quality end.

The Colts could catch a break if an exceptional player slides, but for the most part, at pick 24 they are hoping for a quality starter for the next four years.

 

Round 3, Pick 86

In the third round, teams are looking for a project who develop into a starter for two years. Here are the last five players taken at that slot.

Sean Spence (didn't make team)

Allen Bailey

Daniel Te'o-Neshim

Asher Allen (out of NFL)

Tom Zbikowski

The historic career AV for this slot is 21.  The poster child for that value is Reche Caldwell.

If the 86th pick in the draft ever becomes a starter, your GM has done a good job. This player will likely be a depth/special teams guy at best. Zbikowski is a classic guy for this spot. He's not a good player, but not without some value to an NFL roster.

 

Fourth Round, Pick 121

Once you get into the fourth round, the odds are heavily stacked against a player becoming a star. These guys will likely be weak starters at best.

Keshawn Martin

Chris Proskinski

Keenan Clayton

Anthony Hill (out of NFL)

Red Bryant

The historic AV for this slot is 14. Dylan Gandy is a player with a career value of 14. This pick is the quintessential "this guy starts because we have no one better, but we wish we could replace him" player.

 

Sixth Round, Pick 192

Charles Mitchell

Matt Bosher

Danny Batten (out of NFL)

Aaron Brown (out of NFL)

DeJuan Tribble (out of NFL)

The career AV for this slot is just 12. Melvin Bullitt is a career 12 player. Teams are looking for a guy who can make the squad and play a little special teams.

 

Seventh Round, Pick 230

Nathan Stupar (out of NFL)

Cliff Matthews

C.J. Wilson

Moise Fokou

King Dunlap

Career AV for this slot is 11, which shows you how gradually the draft drops off over the later rounds. Former Colt Aaron Francisco was an 11. If the GM can pick up a solid rotational player like Fokou who bounces around the league, he's done well here.

 

Seventh Round, Pick 254

Chandler Harnish (pick 253)

Cheta Ozougwu

Josh Hull

Tiquan Underwood

David Vobra (pick 252, out of the NFL)

The average player here is worth a 7. Former Colt Von Hutchins was a seven. If Mr. Irrelevant makes the roster, it's a good pick.

Overall, the Colts don't have many picks, nor are they particularly high. They can expect a couple of players they take to be solid starters, a couple to be special teams players and backups, and several to be out of the league in five years.

Obviously, great players are found throughout the draft, and we can all point to All Pros taken in each round. Those super-star diamonds-in-the-rough are the exception, however. Most players taken after the first two days won't ever become regular starters in the NFL.

Quantcast