Of the prospects who could realistically be available with the 22nd pick there isn’t any one that I’m really sold on, but there are plenty who I could buy into. Combine that with the, in my opinion very implausible, rumors the Colts are looking at a QB early and I think a trade down is very possible. Using a trade value chart adjusted to better fit the behavior of teams in recent years I drew up some possible moves back by the Colts.
The most likely trades to consider are a team needing a QB moving up to grab their favorite. While I don’t put any stock into the rumors that the Colts are considering a QB early, there could be some doubt in other teams minds and Seattle a couple picks later at #25 is definitely in the market for a quarterback. Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick are all possibilities to remain on the board until 22 and be snatched up by some team trading into the 1st round, and if Aaron Rodgers can fall to the 24th pick, Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert certainly could.
6 of the 12 teams that could take a 1st round QB currently have the picks to trade up to #22 without including future year picks.
San Francisco: #22 to SF for #45, #76, #108 and #141
A lot to give in one draft, but after picking up a premier defensive piece the Niners could get Harbaugh his choice from a number of promising developmental QBs. With a move back from 7 offsetting the cost or some future picks substituted in the deal is more plausible. It’s a big move back, but with 7 picks between number 45 and 152 the Colts could add a lot of role players, depth, future starters and would have a good chance to hit upon a steal of a pick.
Cincinnati: #22 and #119 to CIN for #35, #66 and #207
A much less extreme deal, with no QBs worth their top 5 pick the Bengals take an elite talent like AJ Green or Patrick Peterson and get a much more appropriately valued QB. Indy’s move backwards is small enough that they could still get one of the players in contention for the #22 pick, bumps their mid-late 4th to a very early 3rd and gets a better 7th rounder than the one they gave up for Tryon.
Tennessee: #22 and #188 to TEN for #39, #77 and #109
The Titans get their QB without having to burn the #8 pick and are left with plenty of late rounders to fill out their depth needs. Indy still has a shot at a high impact player and picks up the pieces to add some more quality talent in the middle rounds.
Buffalo: #22 and #119 to BUF for #34, #68 and #206
A slightly more balanced version of the trade I made in the live mock last weekend. In that scenario I still got one of the players off my short list for the #22 pick, Nate Solder, and was able to still get Quinton Carter after passing on him in the 2nd in favor of Danny Watkins thanks to the early 3rd rounder.
Arizona: #22 and #188 to ARI for #38, #69 and #171
QB is a massive hole on the Cards roster, but there are many better uses of the #5 pick than Newton or Gabbert, what are the Cards to do? For their 3rd rounder and a swap of 4ths they can get a player worthy of the #5 pick and a 1st round QB.
Seattle: #22 to SEA for #25, #156 and #157
Maybe the Seahawks take the Colts interest in a QB seriously, maybe they aren’t willing to risk the Colts, Eagles and Saints trading their pick to someone else interested in a QB, maybe they don’t want a QB at all and are eyeing a sliding DL talent who is unlikely to make it past both Indy and NO. For the cost of some 5th rounders they can be sure to get their man.