The Tie Breaker

Nate Dunlevy breaks down scenarios for Colts draft positioning in 2012.

Here’s my math on the Colts Strength of Schedule Tie Breaker scenario.

Currently the standings are like this:

Indy 120-103

Minnesota 127-97

Saint Louis 130-90

After the jump, the following chart shows all remaning games and how they total if things go as badly as possible for Indy, while the Colts still go 1-1.

IND W IND L MN W MN L STL W STL L
Pitt SF 0 1 0 0 2 1
Indy Hou 0 2 0 0 0 0
DEN BuFF 0 0 0 1 0 0
MIA NE 1 0 0 0 0 0
CLE BAL 1 1 0 0 1 1
OAK KC 0 1 1 1 0 0
Vikings Redskins 0 0 0 1 0 1
Cardinals Bengals 1 0 0 1 1 2
Rams Steelers 1 0 0 0 1 0
Bucs Panthers 1 1 1 1 0 0
Giants Jets 0 0 0 0 1 0
Jags Titans 2 2 0 0 0 0
Chargers Lions 0 0 2 1 0 0
Cowboys Eagles 0 0 0 0 1 1
49ers Seahawks 0 0 0 0 2 2
Bears Packers 0 0 2 2 0 1
Falcons Saints 1 1 1 1 0 1
Week 16 Total (+Pitt/SF MNF)
8 9 7 9 9 10
Jets Dolphins 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bills Patriots 1 0 0 0 0 0
Ravens Bengals 1 1 0 0 1 1
Steelers Browns 1 1 0 0 1 1
Titans Texans 2 2 0 0 0 0
Colts Jaguars 2 0 0 0 0 0
Cowboys Giants 0 0 0 0 1 1
Redskins Eagles 0 0 0 1 1 1
Lions Packers 0 0 2 2 0 1
Bears Vikings 0 0 2 0 0 0
Bucs Falcons 1 1 1 1 0 0
Panthers Saints 1 1 1 1 0 1
49ers Rams 0 0 0 0 2 0
Chiefs Broncos 1 0 1 1 0 0
Chargers Raiders 0 0 1 1 0 0
Seahawks Cardinals 0 0 0 1 2 2
Week 17 Total 10 6 8 8 8 8
Weeks 16-17 18 15 15 17 17 18
Worst case, all 2-14, final SOS
138 118 142 114 147 109

UPDATE: Not that it matters, but San Francisco won. Because that’s a real outcome, I’ve changed the chart to match it.

UPDATE #2: All games are now updated to reflect actual results through Saturday.

This is the chart should all three teams finish 2-14. It assumes Indy beats Houston and loses to Jacksonville, though that order does not matter.  It assumes the team in bold (which is the team that hurts Indy) wins every possible game.

The teams that have and will play Indy can go at best 20-13. The teams that play Minnesota can go at worst 15-17. The teams that play Saint Louis can go at worst 15-20.

Should all three teams finish at 2-14 there is no possible outcome except that Indy gets the #1 pick.

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