The Mock Consensus: Week 5

The college all-star games have had time to sink in, now the rumors swirl for two weeks until the combine opens February 24th.

Week 5’s results: (taken 2/4) 

Positions:  29 OTs, 5 DTs (2 1-tech, 3 3-tech), 2 G, 1 CB, 1 RB, 1 WR

Popular Players:
Anthony Castonzo 11 picks
Derek Sherrod 7
Gabe Carimi 5
Tyron Smith 5

Odd Ducks: Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh), Mikel LeShoure (RB, Illinois), Brandon Harris (CB, Miami), Drake Nevis (3-tech DT, LSU), Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)

Experts vs Fans: Everyone is still thinking OT, with the choice of a particular OT being the main variation. The biggest difference between the 7 expert mocks updated this past week and the 32 fan mocks sampled was Anthony Castonzo being the most popular pick of the week, despite getting no expert support. Castonzo was the pick in 11 of 32 fan mocks, but none of the 7 experts took him, despite 6 choosing OTs.

Shake’s Impact: The random mocks were about as varied as I’ve seen them. OTs were still about 2/3rd of the pick, but there was a good mix of them and 6 different non-OTs were taken. My crusade against Tyron Smith might be working. Despite being the pick for 2 of the 7 experts and 2 of 20 random mocks, Smith was only picked once in the 12 MtD mocks. 

Discussion: For the first time in the 5 weeks there were multiple picks of an interior lineman with Mike Pouncey appearing twice. While the interior line is very likely somewhere the Colts will look to address, I’m skeptical of an interior lineman in the 1st round. If a (supposed) right tackle, Rodger Saffold wasn’t considered to be worth the 31st pick by the Colts FO, it seems unlikely they’d spend the #22 pick on an interior lineman. Baldwin, LeShoure and Harris are all unlikely, but interesting options. Baldwin’s size, strength and hands are impressive, but a lack of great speed, unpolished route running and some concerns about his work ethic make it unlikely the Colts will invest big into him on top of their current WR corps. LeShoure is a big back coming off a great season with checkmarks in the vital categories of receiving, ball security and pass protection. On the other hand he’s a true junior with only one year of bigtime production, red flags for a team that likes experience and production in it’s top picks. Brandon Harris doesn’t often fall to Indy as the #3 CB in the draft by most accounts. Harris is also a true junior, but with 32 starts and back to back All-ACC selections to prove his production. Harris has the kind of man coverage skills that are more necessary in the new D under Coyer, but has played a fair bit of zone as well. All 3 are interesting dark horses, with serious question marks as to Indy’s interest.

Shake’s Pick: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
The first repeat as I flip-flop back to Carimi. Indy was burned writing off an excellent Big Ten LT as being merely a RT. Carimi’s clearly a better prospect than Saffold and was widely reported as more athletic than expected in Senior Bowl practices. Carimi’s an experienced player at a premium, need, position, a dedicated student who is taking the last class needed for his civil engineering degree remotely while training for the draft.

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