Paul Kuharsky posts an absolute gem this afternoon.
There’s so much good about this article, that I don’t want to spoil it.
The basic concept is that the ‘hit rate’ for the draft is significantly lower than what most fans would guess. Among the real nuggets in the piece is the fact that Indy hires an independent outside service to rate how well other teams have drafted:
Polian and the Colts came to their numbers by studying all drafts and rating every team’s success. They use an independent service to verify a hit or miss in Jacksonville or St. Louis, though sometimes the team’s opinion will differ from the service, in which case Polian will defer to his own scouting information.
It’s a solid read and a great look inside the numbers about how to appropriately judge a draft.