Shake’s Final 2011 Mock Draft

My last and more ambitious attempt at predicting tomorrow night’s draft.

Round 1 

1. Carolina: Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama

You know what I really don’t like about Cam Newton, more than anything else? 14 career starts. College games started is a quite strong predictor of QB success in the NFL, before those of you less into statgeekry dismiss this, the best explanation for the predictive power of that stat I’ve seen has everything to do with the people breaking down tape rather than looking at the stats. The more tape scouts have to look at for a prospect the better they can evaluate them. Of the 7 QBs being considered in the early rounds, only Newton has less than 28 starts. Newton is a massive gamble, and the stakes are too high with the #1 pick.

2. Denver: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Denver needs to add defensive talent and Peterson is the best defender still on the board. If Dareus isn’t the top pick he could be taken over Peterson as DT is a more pressing need and Dareus is at the very least close in value to Peterson.

3. Buffalo: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Is Ryan Fitpatrick the caliber of QB you want starting for you, no, but a defense that can’t pressure the other QB is a massive obstacle to respectability that they can do much more to address in this spot.

4. Cincinnati: AJ Green, WR, Georgia

The Bengals have some promising complementary targets, but they need a better top guy after a year of Owens and Ochocinco failing to live up to their big names.


5. Arizona: Robert Quinn, LB, North Carolina

The Cards OLBs are old and weren’t especially productive last year. There are more question marks than you’d like on Quinn, but he’s a top 5 talent.


6. Cleveland: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

Like Cincy Cleveland has some useful pieces, but nothing #1 quality.


7. San Francisco: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Yeah, I don’t like this QB class. Amukamara will be a big help in bringing the Niners pass offense up to match it’s excellent run D.


8. Tennessee: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Too much talent and production to fall much further, but drafting a player with only 1 year of production early is a big gamble.


9. Dallas: Cameron Jordan, DE, California

Dallas didn’t get much from their DEs and Jordan is ideal for a 3-4.


10. Washington: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Any prospect that responds to “give me a play you ran at (your college) with a blank stare is not someone I want to gamble millions on, but someone will and Washington is a real candidate to.


11: Houston: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin

Tough spot for the Texans without a good way to address their main needs, but Watt would be a strong contributor in the Texans new front.


12: Minnesota: Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson

I can buy some slippage, but I’ve seen nothing that justifies the guy going from being discussed for the #1 overall pick to falling to the late 1st.


TRADE: #13 to SD for #18 and #82

13. San Diego: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

In recent drafts the Chargers have made a big move to get a prospect they like and have used an early pick on a small school guy. Why not do both at the same time?


14. St. Louis: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

The Rams have 3 very nice pieces on the DL and a black hole at the 3-tech. Liuget rounds out the unit, which should be fantastic next year.


15. Miami: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

Why is a guy that has worse stats in the same offense as a guy that went undrafted a 1st round pick? I don’t know, but he will be.


16. Jacksonville: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

Kerrigan is a safer choice, but the Jags need to go out on more of a limb to really fix a terrible pass rush.


17. New England: Tyron Smith, OT, USC

I know potential is a word that tightens pants in the NFL this time of year, but at the end of the season everyone said there isn’t a top 10 caliber OT in this class. I don’t think that’s changed.


18. Detriot: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

Kerrigan reminds me a lot of the guy he’d be replacing here, Kyle Vanden Bosch. Not freak athletes, but productive through hard work and intensity.


19. NY Giants: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida

No one seems to think Pouncey is a better prospect than his brother, but he’s commonly mocked as a higher selection than Maurkice was last year (#18 overall). The Giants are old on the OL and have better options in-house at tackle than on the interior.


20. Tampa Bay: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

The Bucs need a pass rusher and Clayborn is undoubtedly the best left who passed his combine drug test.


21. Kansas City: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

Right Tackle was a major hole for the Chiefs and Branden Albert still has his doubters. Carimi can step in at a tackle spot and shore up a line that collapsed at the end of the season.


22. Indianapolis: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

Castonzo lacks some bulk and strength but is an excellent pass blocker. Better protection on the edges and a healthy group of targets will turn the Colts O back into a force to be reckoned with rather than the jerry-rigged mess they managed to ride into the playoffs last year.


23. Philadelphia: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

A great fit for the Eagles scheme and needs, Smith will excel manning up on WRs as the blitz turns up the heat on the QB.


24. New Orleans: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

There aren’t many single workhorse backs in the league anymore, but you at least have to have a strong 1a guy. Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush aren’t it.


25. Seattle: Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State

Heyward fits well as a 5-tech or a 3 in a Seahawks D that could use some more young talent up front.


26. Baltimore: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

At 6’4″ Michael Oher is absolutely tiny compared to the Ravens recent history at LT with both Ogden and Gaither measuring in at over 6’8″. Oher and Yanda performed much better at their previous positions. Solder could prompt a series of moves that’d leave the Ravens with a phenomenal line.


27. Atlanta: Derek Sherrod, OT, Miss St.

Back to back picks kicking a former first round pick over to RT? Maybe, or Sherrod could replace the Free Agent Claybo. If there isn’t a edge rusher here and the Falcons aren’t in love with any of the 2nd tier receivers upgrading the line would be worthwhile.


TRADE #28 to CIN for #35 and #101

28. Cinncinati: Jake Locker, QB, Washington

Maybe adding Green will convince Palmer to stick around a while, Locker is definitely going to need some bench time before he starts so maybe it’ll all work out.


29. Chicago: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

(Insert sadface Cutler here). Paea can be a force inside and while he isn’t the penetrator to replace Tommy Harris, there are tons of great options for that later in this draft.


30. New York Jets: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois

A versatile LB like Wilson would excite Rex Ryan more than a….  never mind. I’m not going there… for a number of reasons.


TRADE: #31 and #128 to JAC for #49, #80 and #114

31. Jacksonville: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State

Mediocracy is one of the most hated traits possible in a starting quarterback. Garrard is building some serious ill-will.


32. Green Bay: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami

The Packers have a excellent pair of corners, but Charles Woodson will be 35 soon and at a position that physically demanding he can’t have too much left at a high level.

Round 2

33. New England: Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State

34. Buffalo: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame


TRADE: #35 and #159 to TEN for #39 and #109

35. Tennessee: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada

36. Denver: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

37. Cleveland: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA

38. Arizona: Marcus Cannon, T/G, TCU

Yeah, I know he’s not going here now that he’s undergoing chemo, but bear with me. Re-working 4 rounds of picks is a pain.

39. New England: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona

40. Dallas: Ben Ijalana, T/G, Villanova

41. Washington: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh

42. Houston: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA

43. Minnesota: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

44. Detroit: Mason Foster, OLB, Washington

45. San Francisco: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia

46. Denver: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee

47. St Louis: Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois

48. Oakland: Orlando Franklin, T/G, Miami

49. Pittsburgh: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor

50. San Diego: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami

51. Tampa Bay: Rodney Hudson, C/G, Florida State

52. NY Giants: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina

53. Indianapolis: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor

Watkins is getting mocked as high as 21 to KC, but a soon to be 27 year old who is likely moving to guard as a pro and has only been playing football for 4 years is going to last a while, even if he is likely to be a starting caliber guard day 1.

54. Philadelphia: DeAndre McDaniel, S, Clemson

55. Kansas City: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland

56. New Orleans: Sam Acho, DE, Texas

57. Seattle: James Carpenter, T/G, Alabama

58. Baltimore: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky

59. Atlanta: Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pittsburgh


TRADE: #60 to ARI for #69 and #136

60. Arizona: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU


61. San Diego: Aaron Williams, CB/FS, Texas

62. Chicago: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU

63. Pittsburgh: Marcus Gilbert, OT, Florida

64. Green Bay: Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa

Round 3 

65. Carolina: Titus Young, WR, Boise State

66. Cincinnati: Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson

67. Denver: Alan Bailey, DE/DT, Miami

68. Buffalo: Kelvin Sheppard, LB, LSU

69. New England: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma

70. Cleveland: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC

71. Dallas: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia

72. New Orleans: Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State

73. Houston: Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State

74. New England: DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma

75. Detroit: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State

76. San Francisco: Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi

77. Tennessee: Quan Sturdivant, LB, North Carolina

78. St. Louis: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy

79. Miami: Jason Pinkston, T/G, Pittsburgh

80. Pittsburgh: Will Rackley, G, Lehigh

81. Oakland: Brandon Fusco, C, Slippery Rock

82. Detroit: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech

83. NY Giants: DJ Williams, TE, Arkansas

84. Tampa Bay: Nate Irving, LB, North Carolina State

85. Philadelphia: James Brewer, OT, Indiana

86. Kansas City: KJ Wright, OLB, Mississippi State

87. Indianapolis: Tyler Sash, SS, Iowa

The best Iowa safety since Sanders, Sash isn’t the freak athlete Bob was, but has much better size and was far more durable. Sash supports the run well and has a fantastic knack for being in the right position for a big play in coverage.

88. New Orleans: Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin

89. San Diego: Kendrick Ellis, NT, Hampton

90. Baltimore: Marcus Gilchrist, CB/FS, Clemson

91. Atlanta: Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh

92. New England: Lawrence Guy, DE, Arizona State

93. Chicago: Greg Little, WR, North Carolina

94. NY Jets: Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU

95. Pittsburgh: Brandon Burton, CB, Utah


TRADE: #96 and #169 to BUF for #100 and #197

96. Buffalo: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa

Round 4 

97. Carolina: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville

98. Carolina: Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida

99. Seattle: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana

100. Green Bay: Colin McCarthy, ILB, Miami


TRADE: #101 and #136 to WAS for a 2012 2nd and 5th

101. Washington: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington


102. Cleveland: Mark Herzlich, LB, Boston College

103. Arizona: Vincent Brown, San Diego State

104. Philadelphia: Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon

105. Houston: Robert Sands, S, West Virginia

106. Minnesota: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU

107. Detroit: Chykie Brown, CB, Texas

108. San Francisco: Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple

109. New England: Chris Hairston, OT, Clemson

110. Dallas: Deunta Williams, S, North Carolina

111. Miami: Jordan Toddman, RB, UConn

112. St Louis: John Moffitt, C/G, Wisconsin

113. Oakland: DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami

114. Pittsburgh: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado

115. San Francisco: Cedric Thornton, DE, Southern Arkansas

116. Tampa Bay: Rickey Elmore, DE, Arizona

117. NY Giants: Jah Reid, OT, Central Florida

118. Kansas City: Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse

119. Indianapolis: Sione Fua, DT, Stanford

Fua isn’t a penetrator, but he can push the pocket, make credible pursuit and he’s extremely tough to move. Just what the Colts need added to the interior on early downs.

120. Philadelphia: Clint Boling, G, Georgia

121. Jacksonville: Chemdi Chekwa, CB/FS, Ohio State

122. Buffalo: Lee Ziemba, OT, Auburn

123. Baltimore: Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State

124. Atlanta: Lawrence Wilson, OLB, UConn


TRADE: #125 to CIN for a 2012 3rd

125. Cincinnati: Shane Vereen, RB, California


126. NY Jets: DeMarcus Love, T/G, Arkansas

127. Chicago: Jake Kirkpatrick, C TCU

128. Jacksonville: Ahmad Black, S, Florida

129. Green Bay: Roy Helu, RB, Nebraska

130. Tennessee: Kris O’Dowd, C, USC

131. Green Bay: Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State

Round 5 

132. Carolina: Virgil Green, TE, Nevada

133. Buffalo: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska

134. Cincinnati: Pierre Allen, DE, Nebraska

135. Kansas City: Jeremy Beal, OLB, Oklahoma

136. Washington: Derek Hall, OT, Stanford

137. Cleveland: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State

138. Houston: Kendric Burney, CB, Kentucky

139: Minnesota: Chris Rucker, CB/FS, Michigan State

140. Kansas City: Tim Barnes, C/G, Missouri

141. San Francisco: Ronald Johnson, WR, USC

142. Tennessee: Jerron Johnson, S, Boise State

143. Dallas: Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian

144. Washington: Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia

145. St. Louis: Shiloh Keo, S, Idaho

146. Miami: Jordan Cameron, TE, USC

147. Jacksonville: Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii

148. Oakland: Thomas Keiser, DE, Stanford

149. Philadelphia: Bilal Powell, RB, Louisville

150. Minnesota: Joe Lefeged, S, Rutgers

151. Tampa Bay: Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State

152. Indianapolis: Charles Clay, H-Back, Tulsa

An extremely productive pass catcher, Clay has experience blocking from the RB, TE and FB spots in addition to being an effective runner. There are several roles already used in the Colts offense that Clay could contribute in.

153. Philadelphia: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech

154. Detroit: Jeff Maehl, WR, Oregon

155. Washington: Mike Mohamed, ILB, California

156. Seattle: Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware

157. Seattle: Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State

158. Atlanta: Terrence Toliver, WR, LSU

159. Tennessee: Ugo Chinasa, DE, Oklahoma State

160. Chicago:  Ross Homan, OLB, Ohio State

161. NY Jets: Owen Marecic, FB, Stanford

162. Pittsburgh: Chris White, ILB, Mississippi State

163. Green Bay: Justin Boren, G, Ohio State

164. Baltimore: Brandon Bair, DE, Oregon

165. Baltimore: Mario Harvey, ILB, Marshall