Draft project appendix

  • The reason the project covers 2002-2009 is that 2002 marked the arrival of Tony Dungy in Indianapolis, and started an era in Colts history.  We also decided that 2010 was too soon to evaluate.
  • Kickers and punters have no AV value. If a kicker or punter played any appreciable time, the ‘point value’ of the pick was not counted. If the K/P failed to make the team, the point value does count against a team.
  • The 2004 Rivers/Manning trade is a tough case. For the purposes of this project, we are crediting all of Manning’s AV to the Giants and Rivers to the Chargers, but crediting each team for the point value where the team drafted.  This was the only trade that we treated in this way.
  • AV is a flawed stat, like all stats. It tends to give a lot of credit to linemen on good offenses or defenses regardless of the skill of the actual player.  That means that a player like Mike Pollak is overvalued in this particular system, whereas a tackle like Joe Thomas would actually be undervalued.  It’s not a perfect system, but it does provide some objective measures.  For more information on AV, please read here.  Note: we used UNWEIGHTED AV for this project, which gives different (and I feel more reliable) results than weighted AV (which is what appears on the PFR draft pages)
  • AV is a moving target as players still in the league increase their value every year.  This makes recent years harder to judge.  It also means the results of this study won’t be valid after next season.
  • The draft point system we used does not account for compensatory picks.  Therefore, we used the pick number that corresponds with the selection, rather than the round format used on the chart.  While compensatory picks cannot be traded, they do obviously have value.  The scoring system was consistent, therefore I don’t think it’s a problem.  All picks after 224 are scored: 225-1.6 226-1.3 and then all subsequent picks have a value of 1.  The increments are so small that they have almost no effect on the results of the rankings.
  • Players that leave the team that drafted them, play for another team and then return give full credit to the drafting team.  We debated including their second stint under AVO, but felt that the drafting team knew them and developed them and should receive credit for bringing the player back.
  • Undrafted free agents also produce value, but were not included in this study.
  • To download the complete data sheets, please click here.  If you use this data in an article, please attribute it to 18to88.com.
  • Thanks to Joe Baker and Dan Menezes for their help in compiling the data.
  • I ran correlations between Total Value and Value/draft points (efficiency) and wins.  Overall the correlation between Total AV and wins was .62 from 2002 to 2009 and .43 from 2005 to 2009.  The correlation between efficiency and wins was .85 from 2002-2009 and .82 from 2005-2009.  In other words, good teams draft well and bad teams draft poorly.  Duh.