Garcon Coming on Strong

Only a few weeks ago, I noted that Pierre Garcon was having an abysmal season.  Since then, he’s thrown the breaks on the train wreck and turned it around.

Here are his numbers through the first ten games of the season compared with numbers the last 3:

Catches Targets Catch Rate Yards YPC TD
Weeks 1-10 32 69 46% 406 12.7 1
Weeks 11-13 19 22 86% 221 11.6 3

Here are his advanced metrics now compared with when I wrote the article

DYAR DVOA Yards EYAR Catch Rate
Weeks 1-9 -75 -28.7 344 271 47%
2010 Full +42 -7.0 627 657 57%

Wow.  That’s a stunning turnaround in just four games.  Garcon went from having one of the worst seasons in Colts history to having a not good, but not awful year.  That’s basically the effect of three outstanding games.  These stats measure the quality of the catches Garcon gets.  Namely, he’s started being effective on third down.  Giving Manning a target he can trust on third down is massive.

Finally, let’s look at Garcon’s 2010 season compared to his 2009 numbers.

Catches Targets Catch Rate DVOA Yards YPC TDs
2009 47 92 52% -0.4% 765 16.3 4
2010 52 92 57% -7.0% 627 12.1 4

Garcon has been obviously less efficient than last year, but given his early season injuries and current resurgence, a strong final three games of the season could well speak to a nice step forward for him in 2010.  

If the season was over now, we’d have to declare it a disappointing one for Garcon.  From a bird’s eye view, he’s basically a little worse than last year.  Taken game by game, however, he’s clearly charging hard.  If he has three strong games to finish the year, he still has a chance to see the overall narrative of his season take a major step forward.  He’s not likely to wind up with a 1,000 yard season, but 800 yards is still within range.  More importantly, he still has plenty of time to pull his catch rate up over 60%.

If nothing else, he’s almost definitely off the hook for having the worst season of any Colt since 1999.  I think that title goes to Qadry Ismail in 2002.

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