I Surrender

The latest attempt by Cold Hard Football Facts to be edgy has finally won me over.  For a long time now, I’ve been under the impression that the best way to make an argument was to present all the facts in context, be fair minded, understand subtitles, and value large representative sample sizes over small insignificant ones.  I also thought that in football, it was ridiculous to say things like, “well, take out that one play and look at the numbers!”  But now, I’ve seen the light and admit the error of my ways.

Today marks a landmark new day in the history of 18to88.com.  We are changing our format here, and will now adopt the CHFF approach to football.  Quarterbacks are to blame for  everything that happens on a football field.  Passer rating is the final arbiter of how well a QB played against any team in and in any conditions.  QBs who play in a dome are to be reviled for their impudence.  We now have the freedom to imagine how player’s stats would look had they not made the best plays of the day. 

Now that we are are on the same page, I offer you the first of our new-style articles:

Why Kurt Warner is the most overrated QB in History (CHFF Style)

Next week’s Super Bowl will provide yet one more opportunity for the media to fawn over one of the most overrated QBs in league history.  Long considered the “Fair-Day Flash” of the league, Kurt Warner, a man most of his coaches deemed replaceable but the ‘know-it-all’ media has tagged a Hall of Famer, will take the field for his third Super Bowl.  Despite superior talent on offense for most of his career, Warner will forever be known as someone who under-produced.  He played in prolific offenses surrounded by Hall of Fame talent, but won only one Super Bowl, even though he has never played a playoff game in bad weather, and has played all but one playoff game in a dome (and that one he played in North Carolina).  He also managed to choke away a Super Bowl as the QB of the second biggest upset loser in Super Bowl history.  He only has one Super Bowl ring, which should serve as a beacon of his humiliation and shame as a massive stat-hound who lived off the reputation of the amazing collection of talent he was surrounded with. 

Warner has long put up eye-popping, but empty stats.  In fact, a team with Warner playing significant snaps as their quarterback has only a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs.  Then, if that team is fortunate enough to win the coin flip between “good Kurt” and “fumble-rooney Kurt”, they have to survive his putrid play in championship games.

The facts are these:
Warner has played in 5 Conference Championship games and Super Bowls.  In those games, Warner’s high flying offenses have routinely stalled out.  A Warner-led team can expect to score a humiliating NINE points below season average in a championship game.  In fact, if not for one brilliant tackle in 1999, he would well be remembered by all as a less talented Dan Fouts. 

Consider Warner’s two Super Bowl performances.  He won the MVP in ’00, but if he hadn’t thrown that 73 yard touch down pass to Isaac Bruce, he would have posted only an 85.5 rating. His play in the 2002 Super Bowl was equally embarrassing.  His rating for the game was only 78.3.  It was a classic choke job from a player living off the coat-tails of his more talented teammates.  If you ignore his last TD pass, his rating was even worse (67.9).

Dare not genuflect at the alter of Warner-mania, despite his gaudy numbers, MVP awards, and Super Bowl MVP trophy, remember only these cherry-picked stats and hypothetical arguments lacking any context.  If you dare chose him as your quarterback, you had better have a great defense to lift your team to the title, because Warner will let you down in the title games.  That is…if you even make the playoffs at all.

 If Kurt Warner makes the Hall of Fame, make sure to check the bust of Bart Starr for tears, for he will have to share space with the Gauguin of Gaggers for all eternity.

Now if you’ll all excuse me, I have to go take a long shower.

Links:
CHFF moves Brady down.  I bet that hurt.  Sigh, such clownery.  He’s the same guy!  TFB didn’t choke in last year’s Super Bowl any more than he single-handedly won the other three he played in.  Maybe if we imagine a few plays didn’t happen (or even invent some new ones…Imagine that Randy Moss CAUGHT one of those deep Hail Mary’s at the end!), we can come up with results that match CHFFs preconceived notions of reality.  

The 2006 Colts were Pythag underdogs.

Some Colts did well with Tanier

I like Leslie Frazier

Thanks to Nate for this video

Thanks to Nate for the link.

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