The numbers don’t lie…or do they?

I’m not going to argue with the computer. Footballoutsiders came out with their preseason numbers, and again, HAL is not on our side. According to the computers, the Colts came out with the 2nd best offense (behind New England) and the WORST defense in the league. Apparently the numbers say that the Colts D will be markedly worse this year than last year. There’s no point in slamming FO; they admit that the numbers look skewed.

I’m very excited and optimistic about this season. I feel strongly that this Colts team will be better than last years. I don’t think that this will guarantee us a Super Bowl, because I have too much respect for both the quality of the AFC and the crazy luck it takes to win. I think the DVOA numbers will correct in a few weeks, and hopefully the new data will help FO fix their projections for next year. One of the limitations on the football stat game is that compiling stats from past seasons is an enormous task. Because of that, a lot of statistical theory lacks the volume of data necessary to be proved valid. This season should be a fascinating one. This team looks great to my eye, but the data says they are only slightly above average. Time will tell…

Demond Sanders’ Comments: What data? They haven’t played a game. No team should have be to judged on data that includes the shoddy work of Gilbert Gardner and the absence of Bob the zombie Sanders. In fact, 25% of the Colts’ roster is new.

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