Yesterday, the Indianapolis Colts announced they had signed Caesar Rayford, a 6-7 265-pound Arena League linebacker who played the past three years with the Utah Blaze.  To make room, they released former Indoor Football League linebacker Jake Killeen, who had signed a reserve/future contract back in January.

Rayford was a reserve at the University of Washington but managed to total 10 tackles and 4 sacks his senior year.  The Detroit Lions added him as an undrafted free agent in 2008, but Rayford soon found himself in the CFL with the B.C. Lions.  After stints with B.C. and the AFL’s Spokane Shock, Rayford finally managed to make a name for himself with the Utah Blaze, where he stood out the past three seasons.  In 2012, Rayford totaled 21 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 7 tackles for a loss, three passes defensed, a forced fumble, and a blocked kick.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Summer for NFL analysts is a conflicting time. 

While the lack of NFL news and activity is frustrating, the extra time allows for us to put the time and effort into digging deeper into numbers and film. Some of my favorite pieces have come during the offseason, such as the Colts' draft review and last year's examination of clutch quarterbacks.

I'll be doing a lot of different film and stat reviews throughout the offseason, and I welcome you to send me suggestions, either in the comments or on Twitter. 

I'll be comparing quarterbacks in several different areas throughout the summer, including updating the third down numbers I looked at during the season. 

But first, I'm going to look at something I could find little comparative statistical work on in my brief Google search: red zone performance. I won't limit this work to quarterbacks though, instead will take a look at both teams and individual performances at different positions. 

Andrew Luck and Darrius Heyward-Bey look on during the Colts' OTAs. [Brian Spurlock- USA TODAY]

Fun story: I wrote out this entire piece long-form and had it all nice and pretty looking with a lot of extra comments and analysis... and then my laptop overheated and everything died and went to be with all the other pieces I've lost over the years in Blogger Purgatory. 

Normally, I'd sit down and re-write it, as I'd put the thought in and whatnot already, I just need to re-type everything. But seeing as how it's now 2 AM and I'm still recovering from the Pacer's choke job in Miami, you're just going to get the notes without a lot of long form analysis. It's probably better this way anyway. How much of that analysis means anything when we're talking OTAs? 

Don't answer that. It might depress me. 

Anyway, on to the notes. 

The first round of Monday-Wednesday OTA’s is complete, and the transcripts are in.  Today’s focus is the defense, with more to come this week.

Of course, this time of year, everyone has a very positive outlook.  What is often interesting are which names the coaches and players mention without being asked about anyone in particular. 

This can be more telling than the understandably upbeat coach speak about how great the team looks in practice.  So, who, besides Andrew Luck, has already stood out enough to garner a mention from a coach or teammate?  There are a couple such gems in the quotes today, so without further delay, let’s get to the Notebook. 

Jan 6, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) sacked by Baltimore Ravens linebacker Paul Kruger (99) during the AFC Wild Card playoff game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

As seasoned, and no doubt well-read, members of the NFL fan community, we have all likely heard the term “sophomore slump” bandied about in football discussions amongst so-called analysts and sports radio rhetoricians (just yesterday Dan Hope of Bleacher Report posted an article which has a Luck sophomore slump as the Colts' "nightmare scenario").  In certain circles it’s a phenomenon that’s reached near axiomatic-like reverence, an expectation rather than a potentiality.

The term “sophomore slump” is a clever alliterative turn of phrase used to illustrate the difficulty inherent in following up a solid performance.  Success leads to heightened, often unrealistic, expectations which in turn frequently lead to disappointment. 

In music, a sophomore slump refers to an artist or band that fails to back up a good first album with a second, in higher education, as many of us undoubtedly know, it’s common to have a significant dip in GPA from year one to two, and in football the term is generally used to describe a drop in production that a second year QB experiences as they transition from a learner in year one (with room to make mistakes) to a leader in year two (and all the responsibility and pressure that entails), or so the story goes.

In a recent conference call with season ticket holders, Colts’ head coach, Chuck Pagano, fielded a question from a concerned patron on this very issue.  Chuck dismissed the notion as unworthy of consideration, at least as it pertains to Andrew Luck:

“We don’t talk about a sophomore slump at West 56th Street, believe me. Nobody is harder on themselves than Andrew. This guy’s a tireless, tireless worker.”

Traditional coach-speak platitudes or genuine lack of concern?

Being the dogged seeker of truth that I am, I decided to investigate.  The results might surprise you. 

Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY

As great as the 2012 season was, it wouldn't have been possible without the fantastic draft Ryan Grigson pulled off last April. 

Obviouisly, a huge portion of that credit goes to Andrew Luck, who carried the team to 11 wins, despite ending up in the red in the season's point differential, yards differential, turnover differential, and just about every other metric as a team. 

But the Luck pick was decided months before the draft, and was a relative lock. 

Grigson's real gems in that draft seem to have come in the third round. The Colts selected TE Dwayne Allen with the first pick in the round, and traded up to the 92nd overall pick pick to select WR T.Y. Hilton. 

Both players received a lot of playing time in their rookie campaigns, and responded tremendously, outplaying their draft spot's average value by a significant margin. 

[Kirby Lee- USA TODAY]

When Pep Hamilton was originally hired back in January, the initial reaction was incredibly positive. With Hamilton's familiarity with Andrew Luck, and vice versa, there seems to be a base for a successful marriage. 

There were a few things that were concerning about Hamilton's initial hiring, namely the hints and brief mentions of possibly running Andrew Luck in read-option or pistol sets. Hamilton would briefly mention these things  several times in the aftermath of his hiring, causing more than a few eyebrows to raise. 

The idea of running your star quarterback into potentially hazardous situations is one that many fans, bloggers, analysts, etc. find questionable, and were cautious about. But, while disliking the idea, most also took his comments to be just that: comments. As I said back in February: 

"Until any of this coachspeack turns into actions, it's not all that concerning."

Any consternation faded away as the offseason continued, especially after Chuck Pagano's comments in March. 

Chuck Pagano on if Andrew Luck ran read-option: "..phone would probably ring on the sideline...telling me what time my flight was leaving."

— Kent Somers (@kentsomers) March 19, 2013

Then, Monday afternoon, Brad Wells at Stampede Blue wrote up a piece I ran across via Paul Kuharsky's RTC links. In the piece, Wells reported that Hamilton had brought up the pistol/read-option possibility again during last weekend's mini-camp, directly contradicting Pagano's comments in March: 

There's nothing we can't do. We can incorporate some pistol concepts, which is kind of a trend, an 'en vogue' thing in the league right now. Everybody's talking about the QB option, the QB read game, the QB pistol, the pistol components that we can run. But, we'll be smart. We'll be judicious in how much we expose Andrew to taking additional hits.

Wells decried the inconsistencies between the Colts' staff, and not without reason. While I'm not the biggest fan of Wells' "style," the variety of rhetoric coming out of the Colts' camp would be worth noting. 

That is of course, if Hamilton had actually said what was reported. 

NFL rookies are entering a unique world, one in which they are paid to play football.  The work is beyond difficult, but the experience – and, yes, the pay – can be quite incredible for the ones who make it. 

Like most players at the Colts Rookie Minicamp over the weekend, third round pick Hugh Thornton enjoyed being on the job for the first time.  “It was awesome,” he said. “I had a lot of fun out there, learned a lot of stuff. That’s one thing you realize, the change from college to the pros playbook is deep. There are a lot of things that go into it. You have a lot of checks. It’s been interesting. It’s been fun. I’m excited to meet the veterans and go from there.” 

There were 37 players at the minicamp over Mother’s Day weekend.  History tells us that some undrafted players will make the team and possibly contribute, but for now, we’ll focus on the seven draftees. 

Having traded a 2013 5th round pick in order to move up to select T.Y. Hilton in the 2012 NFL Draft, Ryan Grigson mortgaged a part of the team's future by trading away a 2014 4th round pick to Cleveland Browns for a 5th round selection this year.

With that 5th round selection, the Colts added another body to their defensive line rotation, and a big body at that. UT Martin's Montori Hughes stands at 6ft 4in, 329lbs and can play either defensive end or nose tackle in Chuck Pagano's 3-4 defense.

GM Ryan Grigson gushed over Hughes, saying he can "move like a cat", whilst head coach Pagano compared Hughes' movement skills (in combination with his size) to Baltimore Ravens defensive lineman Haloti Ngata - high praise for the 22 year old, though expecting Hughes to have a Ngata-like impact on this defense would be incredibly premature.

Welcome to "What to Expect 2013". This is the final installment in which I'll be looking at the positions the Colts drafted relative to their historic counterparts.

The goal of this series is to set reasonable expectations for the new draft picks based how similarly drafted players in the past decade performed.

This allows us to create fair baselines by which to judge players. The purpose of this series is not to predict performance. The goal is merely to fairly judge rookie seasons.

The Colts selected two offensive players in the seventh round, so let's look at them together. Running back Kerwynn Williams is a speedy, kick-return type of back and Justice Cunningham was Mr. Irrelevant, going last in the draft. He's a big blocking tight end.